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Our most reliable read: the probability one driver finishes ahead of another. Tap any card to load it in the matchup tool.
Projected race control — laps led and stage points the model expects each driver to bank. Model projections, information only.
| # | Driver | Team | Proj laps led | Proj stage pts |
|---|
Secondary market. The model's absolute finishing-position line is a weaker signal than the head-to-head matchups above — shown for completeness.
| Driver | Team | Market | Line | Proj | Pick | Edge | Hit % | Conf | Grade |
|---|
| Driver | Team | Proj Finish | Win | Top 3 | Top 5 | Top 10 | DNF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Gibbs | Joe Gibbs Racing | 5.0 | 16.4% | 37% | 50% | 70% | 12% |
| Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | 5.0 | 15.8% | 36% | 50% | 71% | 8% |
| Ryan Blaney | Team Penske | 7.0 | 12.1% | 30% | 43% | 65% | 11% |
| Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing | 10.0 | 5.9% | 18% | 29% | 52% | 11% |
| Carson Hocevar | Spire Motorsports | 11.0 | 5.1% | 16% | 26% | 48% | 11% |
| Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports | 11.0 | 4.7% | 15% | 25% | 47% | 9% |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | Trackhouse Racing | 12.0 | 4.4% | 14% | 24% | 46% | 10% |
| Joey Logano | Team Penske | 12.0 | 4.0% | 13% | 22% | 44% | 10% |
| Chase Briscoe | Joe Gibbs Racing | 13.0 | 3.3% | 11% | 20% | 40% | 10% |
| William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports | 13.0 | 3.3% | 11% | 20% | 41% | 11% |
| Erik Jones | Legacy Motor Club | 13.0 | 3.2% | 11% | 19% | 39% | 9% |
| Chris Buescher | RFK Racing | 13.0 | 2.9% | 10% | 19% | 40% | 8% |
| Daniel Suárez | Spire Motorsports | 14.0 | 2.8% | 10% | 18% | 38% | 11% |
| Austin Cindric | Team Penske | 14.0 | 2.7% | 10% | 17% | 37% | 10% |
| Tyler Reddick | 23XI Racing | 15.0 | 2.2% | 8% | 15% | 34% | 10% |
| Bubba Wallace | 23XI Racing | 16.0 | 1.8% | 7% | 13% | 30% | 12% |
| Ryan Preece | RFK Racing | 17.0 | 1.4% | 6% | 11% | 26% | 12% |
| Brad Keselowski | RFK Racing | 17.0 | 1.4% | 6% | 11% | 28% | 10% |
| Todd Gilliland | Front Row Motorsports | 17.0 | 1.2% | 5% | 10% | 26% | 9% |
| Ross Chastain | Trackhouse Racing | 19.0 | 0.9% | 4% | 8% | 22% | 10% |
| Austin Dillon | Richard Childress Racing | 19.0 | 0.8% | 3% | 7% | 20% | 11% |
| Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports | 20.0 | 0.9% | 4% | 7% | 20% | 11% |
| Michael McDowell | Spire Motorsports | 20.0 | 0.7% | 3% | 6% | 18% | 10% |
| Alex Bowman | Hendrick Motorsports | 22.0 | 0.4% | 2% | 4% | 14% | 10% |
| Riley Herbst | 23XI Racing | 23.0 | 0.4% | 2% | 4% | 12% | 11% |
| Ty Dillon | Kaulig Racing | 23.0 | 0.3% | 1% | 3% | 11% | 10% |
| John H. Nemechek | Legacy Motor Club | 23.0 | 0.3% | 1% | 3% | 11% | 10% |
| Zane Smith | Front Row Motorsports | 24.0 | 0.3% | 2% | 3% | 11% | 11% |
| AJ Allmendinger | Kaulig Racing | 24.0 | 0.2% | 1% | 3% | 9% | 12% |
| Cole Custer | Haas Factory Team | 25.0 | 0.2% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 11% |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | HYAK Motorsports | 25.0 | 0.1% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 12% |
| Noah Gragson | Front Row Motorsports | 27.0 | 0.1% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 15% |
| Connor Zilisch | Trackhouse Racing | 28.0 | 0.1% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 19% |
| Josh Berry | Wood Brothers Racing | 28.0 | 0.1% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 16% |
| Austin Hill | Richard Childress Racing | 29.0 | 0.0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 13% |
| Cody Ware | Rick Ware Racing | 30.0 | 0.0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 15% |
| Chad Finchum | Garage 66 | 32.0 | 0.0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 26% |