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Finishing-position props (over / under)

Secondary market. The model's absolute finishing-position line is a weaker signal than the head-to-head matchups above — shown for completeness.

DriverTeamMarketLineProjPickEdgeHit %ConfGrade

🏁 Pre-race model projections — every driver

DriverTeamProj FinishWinTop 3Top 5Top 10DNF
Denny HamlinJoe Gibbs Racing6.015.0%35%49%71%8%
Christopher BellJoe Gibbs Racing7.011.2%29%43%65%11%
William ByronHendrick Motorsports7.010.0%26%39%63%11%
Kyle LarsonHendrick Motorsports8.010.2%27%40%63%11%
Chase BriscoeJoe Gibbs Racing9.06.6%20%32%56%10%
Joey LoganoTeam Penske9.06.5%19%31%55%10%
Ryan BlaneyTeam Penske10.06.5%19%31%54%11%
Ty GibbsJoe Gibbs Racing11.05.1%16%26%49%12%
Tyler Reddick23XI Racing12.03.8%12%22%44%10%
Austin CindricTeam Penske12.03.3%12%20%42%10%
Bubba Wallace23XI Racing13.03.4%12%20%42%12%
Chase ElliottHendrick Motorsports13.02.8%10%18%39%9%
Alex BowmanHendrick Motorsports13.02.7%9%17%38%10%
Daniel SuárezSpire Motorsports15.02.2%8%15%35%11%
Ryan PreeceRFK Racing15.02.0%7%14%32%12%
Brad KeselowskiRFK Racing15.02.0%7%13%32%10%
Chris BuescherRFK Racing16.01.4%6%11%28%8%
Ross ChastainTrackhouse Racing17.01.1%5%10%26%10%
Carson HocevarSpire Motorsports18.01.0%4%8%23%11%
Erik JonesLegacy Motor Club19.00.8%3%7%21%10%
Josh BerryWood Brothers Racing21.00.4%2%5%15%15%
Michael McDowellSpire Motorsports22.00.3%2%4%13%10%
John H. NemechekLegacy Motor Club22.00.3%2%4%13%10%
AJ AllmendingerKaulig Racing23.00.3%1%3%11%12%
Riley Herbst23XI Racing23.00.3%1%3%11%12%
Austin DillonRichard Childress Racing23.00.2%1%3%10%11%
Zane SmithFront Row Motorsports23.00.1%1%2%9%12%
Todd GillilandFront Row Motorsports24.00.1%1%2%8%9%
Noah GragsonFront Row Motorsports25.00.1%1%2%6%15%
Shane Van GisbergenTrackhouse Racing25.00.1%1%2%7%10%
Ricky Stenhouse JrHYAK Motorsports26.00.1%0%1%6%12%
Austin HillRichard Childress Racing27.00.1%0%1%4%13%
Cole CusterHaas Factory Team27.00.0%0%1%4%11%
Ty DillonKaulig Racing28.00.0%0%1%3%10%
Connor ZilischTrackhouse Racing29.00.0%0%0%2%18%
Cody WareRick Ware Racing30.00.0%0%0%1%14%
Finishing-position simulation — live every day, before books post driver props.
Each row's pick is the better side, not a free bet. Proj is the projected finishing position (median of the simulated distribution). In the Edge column, M = More (finish over the line) and L = Less (finish under the line). Edge and Hit % are projection-based. Click a row for the driver's full finishing-position distribution. Entertainment & information only, 21+. Please bet responsibly.